BUILD0 – 39
El mercado tiene sitio y los comparables sobreviven. El riesgo es el riesgo normal de ejecución, del tipo que ya sabes sostener.
Ejemplo Sim de rescate en coop · 24 · confianza Alta
Motor de decisión con IA
Mata tus malas ideas
antes de que maten
tu estudio.
El error más caro en el desarrollo de videojuegos es enamorarse de la idea equivocada. KillScore combina datos reales del mercado de Steam con IA para dar a cada concepto un veredicto definitivo antes de que le dediques un solo sprint.
127,412 títulos de Steam indexados · puntuación calculada con datos de mercado, nunca a ojo
Cozy farming roguelike with pixel art, base building and a light romance system. Solo dev, 18 months, $19.99, Steam only.
Genre: Farming SimTags: Cozy · Roguelite · PixelPrice: $19.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
KILL
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. A saturated farming-sim shelf and a soft, under-sold hook put this concept at the crowded end of a category that only rewards the excellent. Owner ceiling and market saturation are the two dimensions doing the damage; fix those and the number moves, but as pitched this is eighteen months spent against long odds.
72
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 72 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
72
A saturated shelf and a soft hook — this competes on the crowded end of a category that punishes anything but excellent.
Recommendations
-
01
Drop the romance system
It adds an estimated four months of scope and none of your close comparables monetise it. The measured playtime lift sits inside the noise band — you are paying for a feature the market does not reward.
Reclaims a quarter of the timeline for the roguelite loop that actually differentiates you.
-
02
Re-price to $14.99
$19.99 sits a full tier above the category mode; 71% of owners on this shelf bought at or below $14.99. The higher price invites launch-week discounting anyway.
Removes the biggest conversion drag and pre-empts the discount spiral.
-
03
Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
Your pitch buries the one mechanic that separates you from 1,143 farming sims. Comparables that led with their twist cleared the visibility threshold two to three times more often.
Improves the odds of breaking the 1,000-review visibility ceiling.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 78 Cozy sims average 91% positive. Tolerance for mediocrity is near zero.
- Owner Ceiling 81 Median comparable: 8,400 owners. Top decile takes 71% of the category.
- Market Saturation 88 1,143 farming sims shipped in 24 months. 61 cleared 1,000 reviews.
- Price Competition 54 $19.99 sits above the $14.99 category mode; discount pressure at launch.
- Engagement 37 Roguelite loop lifts median playtime 2.4× versus pure farming sims.
Market analysis
The farming-sim shelf is deep and unforgiving: 1,143 titles in 24 months, and the top decile takes 71% of owners. Median comparable clears ~8,400 owners.
Differentiation
The roguelite loop is the only real wedge, but it is under-sold in the pitch and overshadowed by a romance system that adds months with no measured lift.
Confidence
14 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity over the Steam catalogue
Key risks
- Category saturation is near the ceiling — visibility is the binding constraint.
- Price sits above the $14.99 mode; launch discounting is likely.
- Romance scope inflates the timeline with no measured payoff.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roots of Pardalis | 3,412 | 94% | 210k | $1.9M |
| Harvest Cadence | 1,088 | 88% | 62k | $610k |
| Moonfall Acres | 276 | 71% | 11k | $94k |
| Sprout & Sword | 142 | 58% | 6.2k | $41k |
| Tillage Deep | 61 | 76% | 2.8k | $18k |
AI-suggested comps
Roots of PardalisHarvest CadenceMoonfall AcresSprout & Sword
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 14 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$38kmedian · range $9k – $210k
$9kp10
$38kmedian
$210kp90
Break-even ≈ 3,050 units at $12.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Drop the romance system
- 02Re-price to $14.99
- 03Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Roguelike deckbuilder crossed with an auto-battler. Synergy-driven unit drafting, PvE ladder, pixel art. Two devs, 14 months, $16.99, Steam.
Genre: DeckbuilderTags: Roguelite · AutobattlerPrice: $16.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence Medium
PIVOT
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. The core idea is sound and the deckbuilder-autobattler crossover has real room, but two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle: scope creep from the PvE ladder, and a synergy system that reads as derivative of the category leader. The report names exactly what to change — address both and this moves toward BUILD.
54
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 54 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
54
The idea holds; the scope does not. Two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle.
Recommendations
-
01
Cut the PvE ladder
The format lives on daily seeded runs and draft-driven PvP. The PvE ladder adds months of content the audience is not asking for and dilutes the loop your comparables actually retain players with.
Refocuses scope on the replayable core and shortens the road to launch.
-
02
Differentiate the synergy archetypes
Three of your archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom, and reviewers of the category leader punish "me-too" synergy systems hard. This is the single change that moves the verdict.
Gives the game a defensible identity instead of a middle-of-the-pack score.
-
03
Hold price at $16.99
$16.99 lands exactly on the deckbuilder mode. The band supports it and there is no structural pressure to discount at launch.
Protects margin without costing you conversion.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 62 Deckbuilders average 87% positive — a high bar, but reachable.
- Owner Ceiling 55 Median comparable: 24k owners. A healthy mid-tier ceiling.
- Market Saturation 68 312 deckbuilders in 24 months; the autobattler twist is thinner ground.
- Price Competition 40 $16.99 sits right on the category mode. No pressure.
- Engagement 44 Synergy drafting lifts session length well above the genre median.
Market analysis
312 deckbuilders shipped in 24 months, but the autobattler crossover is thinner ground. Median comparable clears ~24k owners — a healthy mid-tier.
Differentiation
The synergy system is the wedge, yet three archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom. Sharpen them and the verdict moves.
Confidence
19 titles matched · 12 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster + mechanic similarity
Key risks
- The PvE ladder adds scope the format does not need.
- Synergy archetypes lack a clear identity versus the leader.
- Confidence is medium — only 19 close comparables.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft & Doom | 2,140 | 89% | 95k | $1.1M |
| Synergy Spire | 770 | 85% | 28k | $300k |
| Auto Coliseum | 512 | 79% | 16k | $150k |
| Deck of Fates | 198 | 73% | 7k | $60k |
| Tactics Tavern | 88 | 64% | 3.1k | $22k |
AI-suggested comps
Draft & DoomSynergy SpireAuto ColiseumDeck of Fates
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 19 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$120kmedian · range $30k – $540k
$30kp10
$120kmedian
$540kp90
Break-even ≈ 2,100 units at $14.19 net
Recommendations
- 01Cut the PvE ladder
- 02Differentiate the synergy archetypes
- 03Hold price at $16.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Four-player co-op deep-space salvage sim. Physics-based hauling, procedural derelicts, voice-driven chaos. Small team, 20 months, $24.99, Steam.
Genre: Co-op SimulationTags: Co-op · Physics · SurvivalPrice: $24.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
BUILD
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in the last two years and the owner ceiling is a long way from crowded, so measured risk is low across every dimension. What is left is execution risk — netcode quality and cross-play — not market risk, which is exactly the kind of risk a team already knows how to carry.
28
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 28 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
28
Room on the shelf and a proven format. Low measured risk across every dimension.
Recommendations
-
01
Ship the physics chaos as a feature
The jank moments are your clip-shareable surface. Comparables that leaned into the chaos — rather than sanding it down — drove the bulk of their wishlist growth organically, for free.
Turns your biggest QA worry into your cheapest marketing channel.
-
02
Commit to cross-play at launch
Four-player co-op audiences expect it, and its absence caps the reachable player pool. Retrofitting cross-play after launch is materially harder and riskier than building it in from the start.
Protects the top end of the owner estimate, where the real upside sits.
-
03
Hold price at $24.99
The co-op band tolerates $24.99 and buyers expect it. Underpricing here leaves revenue on the table without buying any meaningful extra reach.
Captures the full value of a format the market already pays for.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 24 Co-op physics sims average 90%+ and this niche forgives rough edges.
- Owner Ceiling 30 Median comparable: 120k owners; the ceiling is far from crowded.
- Market Saturation 22 Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in 24 months.
- Price Competition 35 $24.99 is within the co-op band; buyers expect it.
- Engagement 20 Voice-driven chaos drives clip-sharing and long sessions.
Market analysis
Only 38 four-player salvage sims in 24 months and the ceiling is far from crowded — median comparable clears ~120k owners, with outliers past a million.
Differentiation
Physics-driven chaos and voice-led moments are exactly the clip-shareable surface this niche rewards. The format sells itself.
Confidence
9 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity, recent releases
Key risks
- Cross-play is expected at launch; its absence would cap reach.
- Server / netcode quality is the real execution risk.
- The long tail depends on content cadence after launch.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Crew | 9,800 | 95% | 1.2M | $14M |
| Derelict Divers | 3,200 | 91% | 340k | $4.1M |
| Void Haulers | 1,450 | 88% | 120k | $1.4M |
| Scrap Run Co | 640 | 82% | 38k | $360k |
| Orbital Wreckers | 210 | 77% | 12k | $110k |
AI-suggested comps
Salvage CrewDerelict DiversVoid HaulersScrap Run Co
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 9 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$1.8Mmedian · range $420k – $6.2M
$420kp10
$1.8Mmedian
$6.2Mp90
Break-even ≈ 2,000 units at $17.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Ship the physics chaos as a feature
- 02Commit to cross-play at launch
- 03Hold price at $24.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
El motor de decisión
Tres resultados. Cero ambigüedad.
Una sola métrica decide el resultado. La puntuación es aritmética pura, no una opinión subjetiva. Cuanto más baja, mejor: la puntuación mide la saturación del mercado, es decir, cuántos competidores ocupan ya tu espacio objetivo.
PIVOT40 – 65
Una o dos dimensiones están matando un concepto por lo demás viable. El informe las nombra, para que sepas exactamente qué cambiar antes de comprometerte.
Ejemplo Deckbuilder autobattler · 53 · confianza Media
KILL66 – 100
La categoría está saturada, el techo es bajo, o ambas cosas. Sacar esto te costará dieciocho meses que no recuperarás. Mejor saberlo hoy.
Ejemplo Roguelike de granja acogedor · 72 · confianza Alta
Cada veredicto lleva un nivel de confianza.
Cuando hay muy pocos títulos comparables para justificar una cifra, KillScore lo dice en vez de farolear. Un 44 de baja confianza es una tarea de investigación, no una decisión.
Alta14+ comp.
Media6–13 comp.
Baja< 6 comp.
«Solo 3 títulos de los últimos 4 años encajan lo bastante con este concepto. Toma la puntuación como orientativa.»
Cómo funciona
Tres pasos, unos noventa segundos.
-
01
Describe el concepto
Basta un párrafo. Género, gancho, precio, alcance, plataforma. Nuestro módulo Vision AI también analiza capturas y key art.
Roguelike de granja acogedor con pixel art Analizar -
02
Cotejo con 127.000 títulos de Steam
El motor encuentra comparables reales por género, grupo de etiquetas, franja de precio y ventana de lanzamiento, y luego mide cinco dimensiones frente a ellos.
127.412 títulos escaneados 1.143 en la categoría · 14 comparables cercanos -
03
Obtén el veredicto
Puntuación, desglose en cinco factores, comparables con datos de reseñas y propietarios, una estimación de ingresos y recomendaciones concretas.
KILL 72
El modelo de riesgo
Cinco mediciones, tomadas del estante en el que quieres estar.
Cada dimensión se deriva de datos de Steam en vivo, de títulos que compiten de verdad con el tuyo. Se ponderan, se suman, y eso es la puntuación. Nada más la toca.
- Puntuación de reseñas
- Qué listón de calidad impone ya tu categoría y cuánto por encima se sitúan los supervivientes.
- Techo de propietarios
- El límite superior realista de unidades, extraído de la distribución de propietarios de lanzamientos comparables.
- Saturación del mercado
- Cuántos títulos han entrado hace poco en este espacio y qué pocos lograron visibilidad.
- Competencia en precio
- Dónde se sitúa tu precio frente a la moda de la categoría, y la presión de descuentos que le sigue.
- Enganche
- Tiempo de juego mediano y señales de retención para el bucle que propones construir.
Detalle de la dimensiónSaturación del mercado
88/100 de riesgo · mayor contribuyente
- 1,143publicados, 24 meses
- 61más de 1.000 reseñas
- 5.3%superan la visibilidad
Por qué fiarse
La IA explica. Nunca decide.
Los modelos de lenguaje son persuasivos e inconsistentes, una combinación pésima para una decisión de seguir o no. Por eso KillScore divide el trabajo en dos. La mitad que importa es aritmética: la vuelves a ejecutar mañana y obtienes la misma respuesta.
127,412títulos de Steam indexados
0influencia del LLM en la puntuación
100%veredictos reproducibles
Cadena de decisióndeterminista
Motor de puntuación
72
datos de mercado · sin modelo en el bucle
Modelo de lenguaje
redacta la justificación
acceso de solo lectura a la puntuación
KILL
«La saturación y el techo de propietarios dominan aquí. El bucle roguelite es tu único diferenciador genuino, y es justo lo que tu pitch entierra.»
El campo de la puntuación es inmutable a partir del motor.
Precios
Más barato que un año perdido.
Indie
$14.99/mo
Desarrolladores en solitario y dúos que deciden qué construir a continuación.
- 10 análisis / mes
- Desglose completo del riesgo (5 dimensiones)
- Veredicto Build / Pivot / Kill
- Top 10 de juegos de Steam comparables
- Resumen del razonamiento del LLM
- Vision AI (opcional +5 $)
- Informes guardados para siempre, exportables a PDF
- Soporte
Studio
$149.99/mo
Equipos con un catálogo, que publican más de un juego al año.
- 100 análisis / mes
- Desglose completo del riesgo (5 dimensiones)
- Veredicto Build / Pivot / Kill
- Comparables completos con datos de ingresos
- Resumen del razonamiento del LLM
- Vision AI (opcional +50 $)
- Informe PDF para inversores
- Soporte
Investor / Publisher
$499one-off
Diligencia sobre el catálogo de otro, o un consejo que quiere pruebas por escrito.
- Un único informe en profundidad
- Informe PDF de nivel inversor, listo para circular
- Comparables completos + datos de mercado
- Resumen de riesgo ejecutivo
- Anexo de metodología: cada cifra rastreada hasta su fuente
- Vision AI (opcional +250 $)
- Soporte
La próxima decisión debería apoyarse en pruebas.
No en la apariencia. No en el optimismo. No en la voz más alta de la sala.