BUILD0 – 39
市場には余地があり、類似タイトルも生き残っています。リスクは通常の実行リスク、あなたがすでに背負い方を知っている類のものです。
例 協力サルベージSim · 24 · 確信度 高
AI 搭載の意思決定エンジン
悪いアイデアがスタジオを
潰す前に、
葬り去れ。
ゲーム開発で最も高くつく失敗は、間違ったアイデアに惚れ込むことです。KillScore は本物の Steam 市場データと AI を組み合わせ、あなたが 1 スプリントも費やす前に、すべてのコンセプトへ最終判定を下します。
127,412 本の Steam タイトルを収録 · スコアは市場データから算出、勘では決めない
Cozy farming roguelike with pixel art, base building and a light romance system. Solo dev, 18 months, $19.99, Steam only.
Genre: Farming SimTags: Cozy · Roguelite · PixelPrice: $19.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
KILL
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. A saturated farming-sim shelf and a soft, under-sold hook put this concept at the crowded end of a category that only rewards the excellent. Owner ceiling and market saturation are the two dimensions doing the damage; fix those and the number moves, but as pitched this is eighteen months spent against long odds.
72
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 72 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
72
A saturated shelf and a soft hook — this competes on the crowded end of a category that punishes anything but excellent.
Recommendations
-
01
Drop the romance system
It adds an estimated four months of scope and none of your close comparables monetise it. The measured playtime lift sits inside the noise band — you are paying for a feature the market does not reward.
Reclaims a quarter of the timeline for the roguelite loop that actually differentiates you.
-
02
Re-price to $14.99
$19.99 sits a full tier above the category mode; 71% of owners on this shelf bought at or below $14.99. The higher price invites launch-week discounting anyway.
Removes the biggest conversion drag and pre-empts the discount spiral.
-
03
Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
Your pitch buries the one mechanic that separates you from 1,143 farming sims. Comparables that led with their twist cleared the visibility threshold two to three times more often.
Improves the odds of breaking the 1,000-review visibility ceiling.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 78 Cozy sims average 91% positive. Tolerance for mediocrity is near zero.
- Owner Ceiling 81 Median comparable: 8,400 owners. Top decile takes 71% of the category.
- Market Saturation 88 1,143 farming sims shipped in 24 months. 61 cleared 1,000 reviews.
- Price Competition 54 $19.99 sits above the $14.99 category mode; discount pressure at launch.
- Engagement 37 Roguelite loop lifts median playtime 2.4× versus pure farming sims.
Market analysis
The farming-sim shelf is deep and unforgiving: 1,143 titles in 24 months, and the top decile takes 71% of owners. Median comparable clears ~8,400 owners.
Differentiation
The roguelite loop is the only real wedge, but it is under-sold in the pitch and overshadowed by a romance system that adds months with no measured lift.
Confidence
14 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity over the Steam catalogue
Key risks
- Category saturation is near the ceiling — visibility is the binding constraint.
- Price sits above the $14.99 mode; launch discounting is likely.
- Romance scope inflates the timeline with no measured payoff.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roots of Pardalis | 3,412 | 94% | 210k | $1.9M |
| Harvest Cadence | 1,088 | 88% | 62k | $610k |
| Moonfall Acres | 276 | 71% | 11k | $94k |
| Sprout & Sword | 142 | 58% | 6.2k | $41k |
| Tillage Deep | 61 | 76% | 2.8k | $18k |
AI-suggested comps
Roots of PardalisHarvest CadenceMoonfall AcresSprout & Sword
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 14 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$38kmedian · range $9k – $210k
$9kp10
$38kmedian
$210kp90
Break-even ≈ 3,050 units at $12.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Drop the romance system
- 02Re-price to $14.99
- 03Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Roguelike deckbuilder crossed with an auto-battler. Synergy-driven unit drafting, PvE ladder, pixel art. Two devs, 14 months, $16.99, Steam.
Genre: DeckbuilderTags: Roguelite · AutobattlerPrice: $16.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence Medium
PIVOT
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. The core idea is sound and the deckbuilder-autobattler crossover has real room, but two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle: scope creep from the PvE ladder, and a synergy system that reads as derivative of the category leader. The report names exactly what to change — address both and this moves toward BUILD.
54
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 54 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
54
The idea holds; the scope does not. Two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle.
Recommendations
-
01
Cut the PvE ladder
The format lives on daily seeded runs and draft-driven PvP. The PvE ladder adds months of content the audience is not asking for and dilutes the loop your comparables actually retain players with.
Refocuses scope on the replayable core and shortens the road to launch.
-
02
Differentiate the synergy archetypes
Three of your archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom, and reviewers of the category leader punish "me-too" synergy systems hard. This is the single change that moves the verdict.
Gives the game a defensible identity instead of a middle-of-the-pack score.
-
03
Hold price at $16.99
$16.99 lands exactly on the deckbuilder mode. The band supports it and there is no structural pressure to discount at launch.
Protects margin without costing you conversion.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 62 Deckbuilders average 87% positive — a high bar, but reachable.
- Owner Ceiling 55 Median comparable: 24k owners. A healthy mid-tier ceiling.
- Market Saturation 68 312 deckbuilders in 24 months; the autobattler twist is thinner ground.
- Price Competition 40 $16.99 sits right on the category mode. No pressure.
- Engagement 44 Synergy drafting lifts session length well above the genre median.
Market analysis
312 deckbuilders shipped in 24 months, but the autobattler crossover is thinner ground. Median comparable clears ~24k owners — a healthy mid-tier.
Differentiation
The synergy system is the wedge, yet three archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom. Sharpen them and the verdict moves.
Confidence
19 titles matched · 12 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster + mechanic similarity
Key risks
- The PvE ladder adds scope the format does not need.
- Synergy archetypes lack a clear identity versus the leader.
- Confidence is medium — only 19 close comparables.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft & Doom | 2,140 | 89% | 95k | $1.1M |
| Synergy Spire | 770 | 85% | 28k | $300k |
| Auto Coliseum | 512 | 79% | 16k | $150k |
| Deck of Fates | 198 | 73% | 7k | $60k |
| Tactics Tavern | 88 | 64% | 3.1k | $22k |
AI-suggested comps
Draft & DoomSynergy SpireAuto ColiseumDeck of Fates
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 19 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$120kmedian · range $30k – $540k
$30kp10
$120kmedian
$540kp90
Break-even ≈ 2,100 units at $14.19 net
Recommendations
- 01Cut the PvE ladder
- 02Differentiate the synergy archetypes
- 03Hold price at $16.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Four-player co-op deep-space salvage sim. Physics-based hauling, procedural derelicts, voice-driven chaos. Small team, 20 months, $24.99, Steam.
Genre: Co-op SimulationTags: Co-op · Physics · SurvivalPrice: $24.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
BUILD
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in the last two years and the owner ceiling is a long way from crowded, so measured risk is low across every dimension. What is left is execution risk — netcode quality and cross-play — not market risk, which is exactly the kind of risk a team already knows how to carry.
28
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 28 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
28
Room on the shelf and a proven format. Low measured risk across every dimension.
Recommendations
-
01
Ship the physics chaos as a feature
The jank moments are your clip-shareable surface. Comparables that leaned into the chaos — rather than sanding it down — drove the bulk of their wishlist growth organically, for free.
Turns your biggest QA worry into your cheapest marketing channel.
-
02
Commit to cross-play at launch
Four-player co-op audiences expect it, and its absence caps the reachable player pool. Retrofitting cross-play after launch is materially harder and riskier than building it in from the start.
Protects the top end of the owner estimate, where the real upside sits.
-
03
Hold price at $24.99
The co-op band tolerates $24.99 and buyers expect it. Underpricing here leaves revenue on the table without buying any meaningful extra reach.
Captures the full value of a format the market already pays for.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 24 Co-op physics sims average 90%+ and this niche forgives rough edges.
- Owner Ceiling 30 Median comparable: 120k owners; the ceiling is far from crowded.
- Market Saturation 22 Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in 24 months.
- Price Competition 35 $24.99 is within the co-op band; buyers expect it.
- Engagement 20 Voice-driven chaos drives clip-sharing and long sessions.
Market analysis
Only 38 four-player salvage sims in 24 months and the ceiling is far from crowded — median comparable clears ~120k owners, with outliers past a million.
Differentiation
Physics-driven chaos and voice-led moments are exactly the clip-shareable surface this niche rewards. The format sells itself.
Confidence
9 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity, recent releases
Key risks
- Cross-play is expected at launch; its absence would cap reach.
- Server / netcode quality is the real execution risk.
- The long tail depends on content cadence after launch.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Crew | 9,800 | 95% | 1.2M | $14M |
| Derelict Divers | 3,200 | 91% | 340k | $4.1M |
| Void Haulers | 1,450 | 88% | 120k | $1.4M |
| Scrap Run Co | 640 | 82% | 38k | $360k |
| Orbital Wreckers | 210 | 77% | 12k | $110k |
AI-suggested comps
Salvage CrewDerelict DiversVoid HaulersScrap Run Co
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 9 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$1.8Mmedian · range $420k – $6.2M
$420kp10
$1.8Mmedian
$6.2Mp90
Break-even ≈ 2,000 units at $17.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Ship the physics chaos as a feature
- 02Commit to cross-play at launch
- 03Hold price at $24.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
意思決定エンジン
結果は三つ。曖昧さはゼロ。
結果はたった一つの指標で決まります。スコアは主観的な意見ではなく、純粋な算術です。低いほど良い——スコアは市場の飽和度、つまりあなたの狙う領域を何社の競合がすでに占めているかを測るからです。
PIVOT40 – 65
本来なら成立するコンセプトを、一つか二つの次元が殺しています。レポートがそれを名指しするので、着手前に何を変えるべきかが正確に分かります。
例 デッキ構築オートバトラー · 53 · 確信度 中
KILL66 – 100
カテゴリは飽和し、天井は低い、あるいはその両方です。これを出荷すれば、取り戻せない十八か月を失います。今日知っておくほうが賢明です。
例 ほのぼの農場ローグライク · 72 · 確信度 高
どの判定にも確信度がついています。
数値を裏づけるには類似タイトルが少なすぎるとき、KillScore ははったりをかけず、正直にそう告げます。確信度の低い 44 は、決定ではなく調査すべき課題です。
高14+ 類似
中6–13 類似
低< 6 類似
「過去 4 年でこのコンセプトに十分近いのはわずか 3 本。スコアは方向性の目安として扱ってください。」
仕組み
三ステップ、およそ九十秒。
-
01
コンセプトを説明する
一段落で十分です。ジャンル、フック、価格、規模、プラットフォーム。Vision AI モジュールはスクリーンショットやキーアートも解析します。
ピクセルアートのほのぼの農場ローグライク 分析する -
02
12.7 万本の Steam タイトルと照合
エンジンはジャンル、タグ群、価格帯、発売時期から本物の類似タイトルを見つけ出し、それらに対して五つの次元を測定します。
127,412 本を走査 カテゴリ内 1,143 本 · 14 本の近接類似 -
03
判定を受け取る
スコア、五要素の内訳、レビューと所有者データ付きの類似タイトル、収益予測、そして具体的な提言。
KILL 72
リスクモデル
あなたが並びたい棚から採った、五つの測定値。
各次元は、あなたと実際に競合するタイトルのライブ Steam データから導かれます。重み付けし、合算する——それがスコアです。ほかの何ものもそれに触れません。
- レビュースコア
- あなたのカテゴリがすでに課している品質水準と、生き残った作品がそこからどれだけ上に位置するか。
- 所有者の上限
- 類似リリースの所有者分布から導いた、現実的な販売本数の上限。
- 市場の飽和度
- この領域に最近どれだけのタイトルが投入され、そのうちどれほど僅かしか可視性を突破していないか。
- 価格競争
- あなたの価格がカテゴリの中心価格に対してどこに位置し、その後にどんな値下げ圧力が続くか。
- エンゲージメント
- あなたが作ろうとしているループの、プレイ時間の中央値と継続の兆候。
次元の詳細市場の飽和度
88/100 リスク · 最大の寄与
- 1,143発売済み、24 か月
- 611,000 件超のレビュー
- 5.3%可視性を突破
なぜ信頼できるのか
AI は説明する。決して決定はしない。
言語モデルは説得力がある一方で一貫性がない——ゴー/ノーゴーの判断には最悪の組み合わせです。だから KillScore は仕事を二つに分けます。重要な半分は算術で、明日もう一度回せば同じ答えが返ってきます。
127,412本の Steam タイトルを収録
0スコアへの LLM の影響
100%再現可能な判定
意思決定パイプライン決定論的
スコアリングエンジン
72
市場データ · ループ内にモデルなし
言語モデル
根拠を書く
スコアへは読み取り専用アクセス
KILL
「ここでは飽和度と所有者の上限が支配的です。ローグライトのループがあなた唯一の真の差別化点であり——そしてそれこそ、あなたのピッチが埋もれさせているものです。」
スコア欄はエンジンの下流では不変です。
料金
無駄にした一年より安い。
Indie
$14.99/mo
次に何を作るか決めようとしている個人開発者と二人組。
- 月 10 回の分析
- 完全なリスク内訳（5 次元）
- Build / Pivot / Kill 判定
- 類似 Steam ゲーム トップ 10
- LLM による推論の要約
- Vision AI（オプション +$5）
- レポートは永久保存、PDF 書き出し可
- サポート
Studio
$149.99/mo
ラインナップを持ち、年に複数本を出すチーム。
- 月 100 回の分析
- 完全なリスク内訳（5 次元）
- Build / Pivot / Kill 判定
- 収益データ付きの完全な類似作品
- LLM による推論の要約
- Vision AI（オプション +$50）
- 投資家向け PDF レポート
- サポート
Investor / Publisher
$499one-off
他社ラインナップのデューデリジェンス、または書面を求める取締役会。
- 単発の詳細レポート
- 投資家水準の PDF ブリーフ、すぐ配布可能
- 完全な類似作品 + 市場データ
- 経営層向けリスク要約
- 方法論の付録——すべての数字を出典まで追跡
- Vision AI（オプション +$250）
- サポート