BUILD0 – 39
시장에 여지가 있고 비교작들도 살아남습니다. 위험은 당신이 이미 감당할 줄 아는, 통상적인 실행 위험입니다.
예시 협동 인양 시뮬 · 24 · 신뢰도 높음
AI 기반 의사결정 엔진
나쁜 아이디어가 스튜디오를
무너뜨리기 전에,
먼저 없애라.
게임 개발에서 가장 값비싼 실수는 잘못된 아이디어와 사랑에 빠지는 것입니다. KillScore는 실제 Steam 시장 데이터와 AI를 결합해, 당신이 단 한 번의 스프린트를 쏟기도 전에 모든 콘셉트에 최종 판정을 내립니다.
127,412 개의 Steam 타이틀 색인 완료 · 점수는 감이 아니라 시장 데이터로 산출
Cozy farming roguelike with pixel art, base building and a light romance system. Solo dev, 18 months, $19.99, Steam only.
Genre: Farming SimTags: Cozy · Roguelite · PixelPrice: $19.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
KILL
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. A saturated farming-sim shelf and a soft, under-sold hook put this concept at the crowded end of a category that only rewards the excellent. Owner ceiling and market saturation are the two dimensions doing the damage; fix those and the number moves, but as pitched this is eighteen months spent against long odds.
72
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 72 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
72
A saturated shelf and a soft hook — this competes on the crowded end of a category that punishes anything but excellent.
Recommendations
-
01
Drop the romance system
It adds an estimated four months of scope and none of your close comparables monetise it. The measured playtime lift sits inside the noise band — you are paying for a feature the market does not reward.
Reclaims a quarter of the timeline for the roguelite loop that actually differentiates you.
-
02
Re-price to $14.99
$19.99 sits a full tier above the category mode; 71% of owners on this shelf bought at or below $14.99. The higher price invites launch-week discounting anyway.
Removes the biggest conversion drag and pre-empts the discount spiral.
-
03
Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
Your pitch buries the one mechanic that separates you from 1,143 farming sims. Comparables that led with their twist cleared the visibility threshold two to three times more often.
Improves the odds of breaking the 1,000-review visibility ceiling.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 78 Cozy sims average 91% positive. Tolerance for mediocrity is near zero.
- Owner Ceiling 81 Median comparable: 8,400 owners. Top decile takes 71% of the category.
- Market Saturation 88 1,143 farming sims shipped in 24 months. 61 cleared 1,000 reviews.
- Price Competition 54 $19.99 sits above the $14.99 category mode; discount pressure at launch.
- Engagement 37 Roguelite loop lifts median playtime 2.4× versus pure farming sims.
Market analysis
The farming-sim shelf is deep and unforgiving: 1,143 titles in 24 months, and the top decile takes 71% of owners. Median comparable clears ~8,400 owners.
Differentiation
The roguelite loop is the only real wedge, but it is under-sold in the pitch and overshadowed by a romance system that adds months with no measured lift.
Confidence
14 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity over the Steam catalogue
Key risks
- Category saturation is near the ceiling — visibility is the binding constraint.
- Price sits above the $14.99 mode; launch discounting is likely.
- Romance scope inflates the timeline with no measured payoff.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roots of Pardalis | 3,412 | 94% | 210k | $1.9M |
| Harvest Cadence | 1,088 | 88% | 62k | $610k |
| Moonfall Acres | 276 | 71% | 11k | $94k |
| Sprout & Sword | 142 | 58% | 6.2k | $41k |
| Tillage Deep | 61 | 76% | 2.8k | $18k |
AI-suggested comps
Roots of PardalisHarvest CadenceMoonfall AcresSprout & Sword
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 14 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$38kmedian · range $9k – $210k
$9kp10
$38kmedian
$210kp90
Break-even ≈ 3,050 units at $12.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Drop the romance system
- 02Re-price to $14.99
- 03Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Roguelike deckbuilder crossed with an auto-battler. Synergy-driven unit drafting, PvE ladder, pixel art. Two devs, 14 months, $16.99, Steam.
Genre: DeckbuilderTags: Roguelite · AutobattlerPrice: $16.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence Medium
PIVOT
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. The core idea is sound and the deckbuilder-autobattler crossover has real room, but two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle: scope creep from the PvE ladder, and a synergy system that reads as derivative of the category leader. The report names exactly what to change — address both and this moves toward BUILD.
54
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 54 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
54
The idea holds; the scope does not. Two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle.
Recommendations
-
01
Cut the PvE ladder
The format lives on daily seeded runs and draft-driven PvP. The PvE ladder adds months of content the audience is not asking for and dilutes the loop your comparables actually retain players with.
Refocuses scope on the replayable core and shortens the road to launch.
-
02
Differentiate the synergy archetypes
Three of your archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom, and reviewers of the category leader punish "me-too" synergy systems hard. This is the single change that moves the verdict.
Gives the game a defensible identity instead of a middle-of-the-pack score.
-
03
Hold price at $16.99
$16.99 lands exactly on the deckbuilder mode. The band supports it and there is no structural pressure to discount at launch.
Protects margin without costing you conversion.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 62 Deckbuilders average 87% positive — a high bar, but reachable.
- Owner Ceiling 55 Median comparable: 24k owners. A healthy mid-tier ceiling.
- Market Saturation 68 312 deckbuilders in 24 months; the autobattler twist is thinner ground.
- Price Competition 40 $16.99 sits right on the category mode. No pressure.
- Engagement 44 Synergy drafting lifts session length well above the genre median.
Market analysis
312 deckbuilders shipped in 24 months, but the autobattler crossover is thinner ground. Median comparable clears ~24k owners — a healthy mid-tier.
Differentiation
The synergy system is the wedge, yet three archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom. Sharpen them and the verdict moves.
Confidence
19 titles matched · 12 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster + mechanic similarity
Key risks
- The PvE ladder adds scope the format does not need.
- Synergy archetypes lack a clear identity versus the leader.
- Confidence is medium — only 19 close comparables.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft & Doom | 2,140 | 89% | 95k | $1.1M |
| Synergy Spire | 770 | 85% | 28k | $300k |
| Auto Coliseum | 512 | 79% | 16k | $150k |
| Deck of Fates | 198 | 73% | 7k | $60k |
| Tactics Tavern | 88 | 64% | 3.1k | $22k |
AI-suggested comps
Draft & DoomSynergy SpireAuto ColiseumDeck of Fates
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 19 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$120kmedian · range $30k – $540k
$30kp10
$120kmedian
$540kp90
Break-even ≈ 2,100 units at $14.19 net
Recommendations
- 01Cut the PvE ladder
- 02Differentiate the synergy archetypes
- 03Hold price at $16.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Four-player co-op deep-space salvage sim. Physics-based hauling, procedural derelicts, voice-driven chaos. Small team, 20 months, $24.99, Steam.
Genre: Co-op SimulationTags: Co-op · Physics · SurvivalPrice: $24.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
BUILD
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in the last two years and the owner ceiling is a long way from crowded, so measured risk is low across every dimension. What is left is execution risk — netcode quality and cross-play — not market risk, which is exactly the kind of risk a team already knows how to carry.
28
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 28 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
28
Room on the shelf and a proven format. Low measured risk across every dimension.
Recommendations
-
01
Ship the physics chaos as a feature
The jank moments are your clip-shareable surface. Comparables that leaned into the chaos — rather than sanding it down — drove the bulk of their wishlist growth organically, for free.
Turns your biggest QA worry into your cheapest marketing channel.
-
02
Commit to cross-play at launch
Four-player co-op audiences expect it, and its absence caps the reachable player pool. Retrofitting cross-play after launch is materially harder and riskier than building it in from the start.
Protects the top end of the owner estimate, where the real upside sits.
-
03
Hold price at $24.99
The co-op band tolerates $24.99 and buyers expect it. Underpricing here leaves revenue on the table without buying any meaningful extra reach.
Captures the full value of a format the market already pays for.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 24 Co-op physics sims average 90%+ and this niche forgives rough edges.
- Owner Ceiling 30 Median comparable: 120k owners; the ceiling is far from crowded.
- Market Saturation 22 Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in 24 months.
- Price Competition 35 $24.99 is within the co-op band; buyers expect it.
- Engagement 20 Voice-driven chaos drives clip-sharing and long sessions.
Market analysis
Only 38 four-player salvage sims in 24 months and the ceiling is far from crowded — median comparable clears ~120k owners, with outliers past a million.
Differentiation
Physics-driven chaos and voice-led moments are exactly the clip-shareable surface this niche rewards. The format sells itself.
Confidence
9 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity, recent releases
Key risks
- Cross-play is expected at launch; its absence would cap reach.
- Server / netcode quality is the real execution risk.
- The long tail depends on content cadence after launch.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Crew | 9,800 | 95% | 1.2M | $14M |
| Derelict Divers | 3,200 | 91% | 340k | $4.1M |
| Void Haulers | 1,450 | 88% | 120k | $1.4M |
| Scrap Run Co | 640 | 82% | 38k | $360k |
| Orbital Wreckers | 210 | 77% | 12k | $110k |
AI-suggested comps
Salvage CrewDerelict DiversVoid HaulersScrap Run Co
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 9 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$1.8Mmedian · range $420k – $6.2M
$420kp10
$1.8Mmedian
$6.2Mp90
Break-even ≈ 2,000 units at $17.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Ship the physics chaos as a feature
- 02Commit to cross-play at launch
- 03Hold price at $24.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
의사결정 엔진
세 가지 결과. 모호함은 없음.
결과는 단 하나의 지표가 결정합니다. 점수는 주관적 의견이 아니라 순수한 산술입니다. 낮을수록 좋습니다. 점수가 시장 포화도, 즉 당신이 노리는 자리를 이미 얼마나 많은 경쟁작이 차지하고 있는지를 측정하기 때문입니다.
PIVOT40 – 65
그 밖에는 충분히 가능한 콘셉트를 한두 개의 차원이 죽이고 있습니다. 리포트가 그것을 짚어 주므로, 착수하기 전에 무엇을 바꿔야 할지 정확히 알 수 있습니다.
예시 덱빌딩 오토배틀러 · 53 · 신뢰도 보통
KILL66 – 100
카테고리가 포화됐거나 천장이 낮거나, 혹은 둘 다입니다. 이걸 출시하면 되찾을 수 없는 열여덟 달을 잃습니다. 오늘 알아 두는 편이 낫습니다.
예시 아늑한 농장 로그라이크 · 72 · 신뢰도 높음
모든 판정에는 신뢰도가 따라붙습니다.
숫자를 뒷받침할 비교작이 너무 적을 때, KillScore는 허세를 부리는 대신 그 사실을 솔직히 말합니다. 신뢰도 낮은 44는 결정이 아니라 조사 과제입니다.
높음14+ 비교작
보통6–13 비교작
낮음< 6 비교작
“지난 4년간 이 콘셉트와 충분히 가까운 타이틀은 단 3개뿐입니다. 점수는 방향성 참고로만 보세요.”
작동 방식
세 단계, 약 90초.
-
01
콘셉트를 설명하세요
한 단락이면 충분합니다. 장르, 후크, 가격, 규모, 플랫폼. Vision AI 모듈은 스크린샷과 키 아트도 분석합니다.
픽셀 아트의 아늑한 농장 로그라이크 분석하기 -
02
127K개 Steam 타이틀과 대조
엔진은 장르, 태그 군집, 가격대, 출시 시기로 실제 비교작을 찾아낸 뒤, 그에 대해 다섯 가지 차원을 측정합니다.
127,412개 타이틀 스캔 카테고리 내 1,143개 · 근접 비교작 14개 -
03
판정을 받으세요
점수, 다섯 요소 분해, 리뷰·소유자 데이터가 포함된 비교작, 매출 추정, 그리고 구체적인 권고.
KILL 72
위험 모델
당신이 서고 싶은 그 진열대에서 뽑아낸 다섯 가지 측정치.
각 차원은 실제로 당신과 경쟁하는 타이틀의 실시간 Steam 데이터에서 나옵니다. 가중치를 매겨 합산하면, 그것이 점수입니다. 그 밖에 무엇도 점수에 손대지 않습니다.
- 리뷰 점수
- 당신의 카테고리가 이미 강제하는 품질 기준선과, 살아남은 작품들이 그 위로 얼마나 올라서 있는지.
- 소유자 상한
- 비교 가능한 출시작들의 소유자 분포에서 도출한, 현실적인 판매량 상한.
- 시장 포화도
- 최근 이 영역에 얼마나 많은 타이틀이 들어왔고, 그중 얼마나 적은 수만이 노출을 뚫었는지.
- 가격 경쟁
- 당신의 가격이 카테고리 최빈가 대비 어디에 있으며, 뒤따르는 할인 압력은 어떤지.
- 몰입도
- 당신이 만들려는 루프의 중앙값 플레이 시간과 잔존 신호.
차원 상세시장 포화도
88/100 위험 · 최대 기여 요인
- 1,143출시됨, 24개월
- 61리뷰 1,000개 이상
- 5.3%노출 돌파
왜 믿어도 되는가
AI는 설명합니다. 결코 결정하지 않습니다.
언어 모델은 설득력 있지만 일관성이 없습니다. 진행/중단 결정에는 최악의 조합이죠. 그래서 KillScore는 작업을 둘로 나눕니다. 중요한 절반은 산술입니다. 내일 다시 돌려도 같은 답이 나옵니다.
127,412개의 Steam 타이틀 색인
0점수에 대한 LLM 영향
100%재현 가능한 판정
의사결정 파이프라인결정론적
점수 엔진
72
시장 데이터 · 루프에 모델 없음
언어 모델
근거를 작성
점수에 읽기 전용으로 접근
KILL
“여기서는 포화도와 소유자 상한이 지배적입니다. 로그라이트 루프가 당신의 유일한 진짜 차별점인데—바로 그것을 당신의 피치가 파묻고 있습니다.”
점수 필드는 엔진 하류에서 변경 불가입니다.
가격
허비한 1년보다 쌉니다.
Indie
$14.99/mo
다음에 무엇을 만들지 결정하는 1인 개발자와 2인 팀.
- 월 10회 분석
- 전체 위험 분해(5개 차원)
- Build / Pivot / Kill 판정
- 유사 Steam 게임 톱 10
- LLM 추론 요약
- Vision AI(선택 +$5)
- 리포트 영구 보관, PDF 내보내기
- 지원
Studio
$149.99/mo
라인업을 갖추고 한 해에 두 개 이상 출시하는 팀.
- 월 100회 분석
- 전체 위험 분해(5개 차원)
- Build / Pivot / Kill 판정
- 매출 데이터가 포함된 완전한 비교작
- LLM 추론 요약
- Vision AI(선택 +$50)
- 투자자용 PDF 리포트
- 지원
Investor / Publisher
$499one-off
타인의 라인업에 대한 실사, 또는 문서를 원하는 이사회.
- 단건 심층 리포트
- 곧바로 회람 가능한 투자자급 PDF 브리프
- 완전한 비교작 + 시장 데이터
- 경영진용 위험 요약
- 방법론 부록 — 모든 숫자를 출처까지 추적
- Vision AI(선택 +$250)
- 지원