BUILD0 – 39
O mercado tem espaço e os comparáveis sobrevivem. O risco é o risco normal de execução, do tipo que você já sabe carregar.
Exemplo Sim de resgate coop · 24 · confiança Alta
Motor de decisão com IA
Mate suas ideias ruins
antes que elas matem
o seu estúdio.
O erro mais caro no desenvolvimento de jogos é se apaixonar pela ideia errada. A KillScore combina dados reais de mercado da Steam com IA para dar a cada conceito um veredito definitivo antes de você gastar um único sprint nele.
127,412 títulos da Steam indexados · nota calculada a partir de dados de mercado, nunca no achismo
Cozy farming roguelike with pixel art, base building and a light romance system. Solo dev, 18 months, $19.99, Steam only.
Genre: Farming SimTags: Cozy · Roguelite · PixelPrice: $19.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
KILL
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. A saturated farming-sim shelf and a soft, under-sold hook put this concept at the crowded end of a category that only rewards the excellent. Owner ceiling and market saturation are the two dimensions doing the damage; fix those and the number moves, but as pitched this is eighteen months spent against long odds.
72
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 72 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
72
A saturated shelf and a soft hook — this competes on the crowded end of a category that punishes anything but excellent.
Recommendations
-
01
Drop the romance system
It adds an estimated four months of scope and none of your close comparables monetise it. The measured playtime lift sits inside the noise band — you are paying for a feature the market does not reward.
Reclaims a quarter of the timeline for the roguelite loop that actually differentiates you.
-
02
Re-price to $14.99
$19.99 sits a full tier above the category mode; 71% of owners on this shelf bought at or below $14.99. The higher price invites launch-week discounting anyway.
Removes the biggest conversion drag and pre-empts the discount spiral.
-
03
Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
Your pitch buries the one mechanic that separates you from 1,143 farming sims. Comparables that led with their twist cleared the visibility threshold two to three times more often.
Improves the odds of breaking the 1,000-review visibility ceiling.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 78 Cozy sims average 91% positive. Tolerance for mediocrity is near zero.
- Owner Ceiling 81 Median comparable: 8,400 owners. Top decile takes 71% of the category.
- Market Saturation 88 1,143 farming sims shipped in 24 months. 61 cleared 1,000 reviews.
- Price Competition 54 $19.99 sits above the $14.99 category mode; discount pressure at launch.
- Engagement 37 Roguelite loop lifts median playtime 2.4× versus pure farming sims.
Market analysis
The farming-sim shelf is deep and unforgiving: 1,143 titles in 24 months, and the top decile takes 71% of owners. Median comparable clears ~8,400 owners.
Differentiation
The roguelite loop is the only real wedge, but it is under-sold in the pitch and overshadowed by a romance system that adds months with no measured lift.
Confidence
14 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity over the Steam catalogue
Key risks
- Category saturation is near the ceiling — visibility is the binding constraint.
- Price sits above the $14.99 mode; launch discounting is likely.
- Romance scope inflates the timeline with no measured payoff.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roots of Pardalis | 3,412 | 94% | 210k | $1.9M |
| Harvest Cadence | 1,088 | 88% | 62k | $610k |
| Moonfall Acres | 276 | 71% | 11k | $94k |
| Sprout & Sword | 142 | 58% | 6.2k | $41k |
| Tillage Deep | 61 | 76% | 2.8k | $18k |
AI-suggested comps
Roots of PardalisHarvest CadenceMoonfall AcresSprout & Sword
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 14 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$38kmedian · range $9k – $210k
$9kp10
$38kmedian
$210kp90
Break-even ≈ 3,050 units at $12.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Drop the romance system
- 02Re-price to $14.99
- 03Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Roguelike deckbuilder crossed with an auto-battler. Synergy-driven unit drafting, PvE ladder, pixel art. Two devs, 14 months, $16.99, Steam.
Genre: DeckbuilderTags: Roguelite · AutobattlerPrice: $16.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence Medium
PIVOT
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. The core idea is sound and the deckbuilder-autobattler crossover has real room, but two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle: scope creep from the PvE ladder, and a synergy system that reads as derivative of the category leader. The report names exactly what to change — address both and this moves toward BUILD.
54
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 54 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
54
The idea holds; the scope does not. Two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle.
Recommendations
-
01
Cut the PvE ladder
The format lives on daily seeded runs and draft-driven PvP. The PvE ladder adds months of content the audience is not asking for and dilutes the loop your comparables actually retain players with.
Refocuses scope on the replayable core and shortens the road to launch.
-
02
Differentiate the synergy archetypes
Three of your archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom, and reviewers of the category leader punish "me-too" synergy systems hard. This is the single change that moves the verdict.
Gives the game a defensible identity instead of a middle-of-the-pack score.
-
03
Hold price at $16.99
$16.99 lands exactly on the deckbuilder mode. The band supports it and there is no structural pressure to discount at launch.
Protects margin without costing you conversion.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 62 Deckbuilders average 87% positive — a high bar, but reachable.
- Owner Ceiling 55 Median comparable: 24k owners. A healthy mid-tier ceiling.
- Market Saturation 68 312 deckbuilders in 24 months; the autobattler twist is thinner ground.
- Price Competition 40 $16.99 sits right on the category mode. No pressure.
- Engagement 44 Synergy drafting lifts session length well above the genre median.
Market analysis
312 deckbuilders shipped in 24 months, but the autobattler crossover is thinner ground. Median comparable clears ~24k owners — a healthy mid-tier.
Differentiation
The synergy system is the wedge, yet three archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom. Sharpen them and the verdict moves.
Confidence
19 titles matched · 12 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster + mechanic similarity
Key risks
- The PvE ladder adds scope the format does not need.
- Synergy archetypes lack a clear identity versus the leader.
- Confidence is medium — only 19 close comparables.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft & Doom | 2,140 | 89% | 95k | $1.1M |
| Synergy Spire | 770 | 85% | 28k | $300k |
| Auto Coliseum | 512 | 79% | 16k | $150k |
| Deck of Fates | 198 | 73% | 7k | $60k |
| Tactics Tavern | 88 | 64% | 3.1k | $22k |
AI-suggested comps
Draft & DoomSynergy SpireAuto ColiseumDeck of Fates
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 19 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$120kmedian · range $30k – $540k
$30kp10
$120kmedian
$540kp90
Break-even ≈ 2,100 units at $14.19 net
Recommendations
- 01Cut the PvE ladder
- 02Differentiate the synergy archetypes
- 03Hold price at $16.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Four-player co-op deep-space salvage sim. Physics-based hauling, procedural derelicts, voice-driven chaos. Small team, 20 months, $24.99, Steam.
Genre: Co-op SimulationTags: Co-op · Physics · SurvivalPrice: $24.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
BUILD
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in the last two years and the owner ceiling is a long way from crowded, so measured risk is low across every dimension. What is left is execution risk — netcode quality and cross-play — not market risk, which is exactly the kind of risk a team already knows how to carry.
28
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 28 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
28
Room on the shelf and a proven format. Low measured risk across every dimension.
Recommendations
-
01
Ship the physics chaos as a feature
The jank moments are your clip-shareable surface. Comparables that leaned into the chaos — rather than sanding it down — drove the bulk of their wishlist growth organically, for free.
Turns your biggest QA worry into your cheapest marketing channel.
-
02
Commit to cross-play at launch
Four-player co-op audiences expect it, and its absence caps the reachable player pool. Retrofitting cross-play after launch is materially harder and riskier than building it in from the start.
Protects the top end of the owner estimate, where the real upside sits.
-
03
Hold price at $24.99
The co-op band tolerates $24.99 and buyers expect it. Underpricing here leaves revenue on the table without buying any meaningful extra reach.
Captures the full value of a format the market already pays for.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 24 Co-op physics sims average 90%+ and this niche forgives rough edges.
- Owner Ceiling 30 Median comparable: 120k owners; the ceiling is far from crowded.
- Market Saturation 22 Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in 24 months.
- Price Competition 35 $24.99 is within the co-op band; buyers expect it.
- Engagement 20 Voice-driven chaos drives clip-sharing and long sessions.
Market analysis
Only 38 four-player salvage sims in 24 months and the ceiling is far from crowded — median comparable clears ~120k owners, with outliers past a million.
Differentiation
Physics-driven chaos and voice-led moments are exactly the clip-shareable surface this niche rewards. The format sells itself.
Confidence
9 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity, recent releases
Key risks
- Cross-play is expected at launch; its absence would cap reach.
- Server / netcode quality is the real execution risk.
- The long tail depends on content cadence after launch.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Crew | 9,800 | 95% | 1.2M | $14M |
| Derelict Divers | 3,200 | 91% | 340k | $4.1M |
| Void Haulers | 1,450 | 88% | 120k | $1.4M |
| Scrap Run Co | 640 | 82% | 38k | $360k |
| Orbital Wreckers | 210 | 77% | 12k | $110k |
AI-suggested comps
Salvage CrewDerelict DiversVoid HaulersScrap Run Co
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 9 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$1.8Mmedian · range $420k – $6.2M
$420kp10
$1.8Mmedian
$6.2Mp90
Break-even ≈ 2,000 units at $17.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Ship the physics chaos as a feature
- 02Commit to cross-play at launch
- 03Hold price at $24.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
O motor de decisão
Três resultados. Zero ambiguidade.
Uma única métrica decide o resultado. A nota é aritmética pura, não opinião subjetiva. Quanto menor, melhor: a nota mede a saturação do mercado, ou seja, quantos concorrentes já ocupam o seu espaço-alvo.
PIVOT40 – 65
Uma ou duas dimensões estão matando um conceito que, no restante, é viável. O relatório aponta quais são, para você saber exatamente o que mudar antes de se comprometer.
Exemplo Deckbuilder autobattler · 53 · confiança Média
KILL66 – 100
A categoria está saturada, o teto é baixo, ou os dois. Lançar isto vai custar dezoito meses que você não recupera. Melhor descobrir hoje.
Exemplo Roguelike de fazenda aconchegante · 72 · confiança Alta
Todo veredito carrega um nível de confiança.
Quando há títulos comparáveis de menos para justificar um número, a KillScore diz isso em vez de blefar. Um 44 de baixa confiança é uma tarefa de pesquisa, não uma decisão.
Alta14+ comp.
Média6–13 comp.
Baixa< 6 comp.
“Apenas 3 títulos dos últimos 4 anos combinam de perto o suficiente com este conceito. Trate a nota como direcional.”
Como funciona
Três passos, cerca de noventa segundos.
-
01
Descreva o conceito
Um parágrafo basta. Gênero, gancho, preço, escopo, plataforma. Nosso módulo Vision AI também analisa capturas de tela e key art.
Roguelike de fazenda aconchegante com pixel art Analisar -
02
Comparação com 127 mil títulos da Steam
O motor encontra comparáveis reais por gênero, agrupamento de tags, faixa de preço e janela de lançamento, e então mede cinco dimensões contra eles.
127.412 títulos varridos 1.143 na categoria · 14 comparáveis próximos -
03
Receba o veredito
Nota, detalhamento em cinco fatores, comparáveis com dados de avaliações e de proprietários, uma estimativa de receita e recomendações concretas.
KILL 72
O modelo de risco
Cinco medições, tiradas da prateleira onde você quer estar.
Cada dimensão é derivada de dados ao vivo da Steam, de títulos que realmente competem com o seu. Elas são ponderadas, somadas, e isso é a nota. Nada mais a toca.
- Nota de avaliações
- Que régua de qualidade a sua categoria já impõe, e quão acima dela ficam os sobreviventes.
- Teto de proprietários
- O limite superior realista de unidades, extraído da distribuição de proprietários de lançamentos comparáveis.
- Saturação do mercado
- Quantos títulos entraram recentemente neste espaço, e quão poucos alcançaram visibilidade.
- Concorrência de preço
- Onde o seu preço se posiciona frente à moda da categoria, e a pressão de desconto que vem em seguida.
- Engajamento
- Tempo de jogo mediano e sinais de retenção para o loop que você propõe construir.
Detalhe da dimensãoSaturação do mercado
88/100 de risco · maior contribuinte
- 1,143lançados, 24 meses
- 61mais de 1.000 avaliações
- 5.3%rompem a visibilidade
Por que confiar
A IA explica. Ela nunca decide.
Modelos de linguagem são persuasivos e inconsistentes, uma combinação péssima para uma decisão de seguir ou não. Por isso a KillScore divide o trabalho em dois. A metade que importa é aritmética: rode de novo amanhã e você terá a mesma resposta.
127,412títulos da Steam indexados
0influência do LLM na nota
100%vereditos reproduzíveis
Pipeline de decisãodeterminístico
Motor de pontuação
72
dados de mercado · nenhum modelo no circuito
Modelo de linguagem
escreve a justificativa
acesso somente leitura à nota
KILL
“Saturação e teto de proprietários dominam aqui. O loop roguelite é o seu único diferencial genuíno — e é justamente o que o seu pitch enterra.”
O campo da nota é imutável a jusante do motor.
Preços
Mais barato que um ano perdido.
Indie
$14.99/mo
Desenvolvedores solo e duplas decidindo o que construir a seguir.
- 10 análises / mês
- Detalhamento completo de risco (5 dimensões)
- Veredito Build / Pivot / Kill
- Top 10 de jogos comparáveis da Steam
- Resumo do raciocínio do LLM
- Vision AI (opcional +US$ 5)
- Relatórios guardados para sempre, exportáveis em PDF
- Suporte
Studio
$149.99/mo
Equipes com um portfólio, lançando mais de um jogo por ano.
- 100 análises / mês
- Detalhamento completo de risco (5 dimensões)
- Veredito Build / Pivot / Kill
- Comparáveis completos com dados de receita
- Resumo do raciocínio do LLM
- Vision AI (opcional +US$ 50)
- Relatório PDF para investidores
- Suporte
Investor / Publisher
$499one-off
Due diligence sobre o portfólio de outra pessoa, ou um conselho que quer algo por escrito.
- Um único relatório aprofundado
- Resumo PDF de nível investidor, pronto para circular
- Comparáveis completos + dados de mercado
- Resumo executivo de risco
- Apêndice de metodologia — cada número rastreado até a fonte
- Vision AI (opcional +US$ 250)
- Suporte
A próxima decisão deveria se apoiar em evidências.
Não na aparência. Não no otimismo. Não na voz mais alta da sala.