BUILD0 – 39
Pazarda yer var ve benzer oyunlar ayakta kalıyor. Risk, sıradan bir uygulama riski — zaten taşımayı bildiğin türden.
Örnek Ortak hurda toplama simülasyonu · 24 · güven Yüksek
Yapay Zekâ Destekli Karar Motoru
Kötü fikirlerini,
stüdyonu öldürmeden
sen öldür.
Oyun geliştirmedeki en pahalı hata, yanlış fikre âşık olmaktır. KillScore, gerçek Steam pazar verisini yapay zekâ ile birleştirir ve tek bir sprint bile harcamadan her fikre nihai bir karar verir.
127,412 Steam oyunu dizine eklendi · puan pazar verisinden hesaplanır, asla sezgiyle değil
Cozy farming roguelike with pixel art, base building and a light romance system. Solo dev, 18 months, $19.99, Steam only.
Genre: Farming SimTags: Cozy · Roguelite · PixelPrice: $19.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
KILL
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. A saturated farming-sim shelf and a soft, under-sold hook put this concept at the crowded end of a category that only rewards the excellent. Owner ceiling and market saturation are the two dimensions doing the damage; fix those and the number moves, but as pitched this is eighteen months spent against long odds.
72
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 72 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
72
A saturated shelf and a soft hook — this competes on the crowded end of a category that punishes anything but excellent.
Recommendations
-
01
Drop the romance system
It adds an estimated four months of scope and none of your close comparables monetise it. The measured playtime lift sits inside the noise band — you are paying for a feature the market does not reward.
Reclaims a quarter of the timeline for the roguelite loop that actually differentiates you.
-
02
Re-price to $14.99
$19.99 sits a full tier above the category mode; 71% of owners on this shelf bought at or below $14.99. The higher price invites launch-week discounting anyway.
Removes the biggest conversion drag and pre-empts the discount spiral.
-
03
Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
Your pitch buries the one mechanic that separates you from 1,143 farming sims. Comparables that led with their twist cleared the visibility threshold two to three times more often.
Improves the odds of breaking the 1,000-review visibility ceiling.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 78 Cozy sims average 91% positive. Tolerance for mediocrity is near zero.
- Owner Ceiling 81 Median comparable: 8,400 owners. Top decile takes 71% of the category.
- Market Saturation 88 1,143 farming sims shipped in 24 months. 61 cleared 1,000 reviews.
- Price Competition 54 $19.99 sits above the $14.99 category mode; discount pressure at launch.
- Engagement 37 Roguelite loop lifts median playtime 2.4× versus pure farming sims.
Market analysis
The farming-sim shelf is deep and unforgiving: 1,143 titles in 24 months, and the top decile takes 71% of owners. Median comparable clears ~8,400 owners.
Differentiation
The roguelite loop is the only real wedge, but it is under-sold in the pitch and overshadowed by a romance system that adds months with no measured lift.
Confidence
14 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity over the Steam catalogue
Key risks
- Category saturation is near the ceiling — visibility is the binding constraint.
- Price sits above the $14.99 mode; launch discounting is likely.
- Romance scope inflates the timeline with no measured payoff.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roots of Pardalis | 3,412 | 94% | 210k | $1.9M |
| Harvest Cadence | 1,088 | 88% | 62k | $610k |
| Moonfall Acres | 276 | 71% | 11k | $94k |
| Sprout & Sword | 142 | 58% | 6.2k | $41k |
| Tillage Deep | 61 | 76% | 2.8k | $18k |
AI-suggested comps
Roots of PardalisHarvest CadenceMoonfall AcresSprout & Sword
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 14 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$38kmedian · range $9k – $210k
$9kp10
$38kmedian
$210kp90
Break-even ≈ 3,050 units at $12.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Drop the romance system
- 02Re-price to $14.99
- 03Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Roguelike deckbuilder crossed with an auto-battler. Synergy-driven unit drafting, PvE ladder, pixel art. Two devs, 14 months, $16.99, Steam.
Genre: DeckbuilderTags: Roguelite · AutobattlerPrice: $16.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence Medium
PIVOT
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. The core idea is sound and the deckbuilder-autobattler crossover has real room, but two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle: scope creep from the PvE ladder, and a synergy system that reads as derivative of the category leader. The report names exactly what to change — address both and this moves toward BUILD.
54
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 54 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
54
The idea holds; the scope does not. Two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle.
Recommendations
-
01
Cut the PvE ladder
The format lives on daily seeded runs and draft-driven PvP. The PvE ladder adds months of content the audience is not asking for and dilutes the loop your comparables actually retain players with.
Refocuses scope on the replayable core and shortens the road to launch.
-
02
Differentiate the synergy archetypes
Three of your archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom, and reviewers of the category leader punish "me-too" synergy systems hard. This is the single change that moves the verdict.
Gives the game a defensible identity instead of a middle-of-the-pack score.
-
03
Hold price at $16.99
$16.99 lands exactly on the deckbuilder mode. The band supports it and there is no structural pressure to discount at launch.
Protects margin without costing you conversion.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 62 Deckbuilders average 87% positive — a high bar, but reachable.
- Owner Ceiling 55 Median comparable: 24k owners. A healthy mid-tier ceiling.
- Market Saturation 68 312 deckbuilders in 24 months; the autobattler twist is thinner ground.
- Price Competition 40 $16.99 sits right on the category mode. No pressure.
- Engagement 44 Synergy drafting lifts session length well above the genre median.
Market analysis
312 deckbuilders shipped in 24 months, but the autobattler crossover is thinner ground. Median comparable clears ~24k owners — a healthy mid-tier.
Differentiation
The synergy system is the wedge, yet three archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom. Sharpen them and the verdict moves.
Confidence
19 titles matched · 12 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster + mechanic similarity
Key risks
- The PvE ladder adds scope the format does not need.
- Synergy archetypes lack a clear identity versus the leader.
- Confidence is medium — only 19 close comparables.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft & Doom | 2,140 | 89% | 95k | $1.1M |
| Synergy Spire | 770 | 85% | 28k | $300k |
| Auto Coliseum | 512 | 79% | 16k | $150k |
| Deck of Fates | 198 | 73% | 7k | $60k |
| Tactics Tavern | 88 | 64% | 3.1k | $22k |
AI-suggested comps
Draft & DoomSynergy SpireAuto ColiseumDeck of Fates
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 19 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$120kmedian · range $30k – $540k
$30kp10
$120kmedian
$540kp90
Break-even ≈ 2,100 units at $14.19 net
Recommendations
- 01Cut the PvE ladder
- 02Differentiate the synergy archetypes
- 03Hold price at $16.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Four-player co-op deep-space salvage sim. Physics-based hauling, procedural derelicts, voice-driven chaos. Small team, 20 months, $24.99, Steam.
Genre: Co-op SimulationTags: Co-op · Physics · SurvivalPrice: $24.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
BUILD
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in the last two years and the owner ceiling is a long way from crowded, so measured risk is low across every dimension. What is left is execution risk — netcode quality and cross-play — not market risk, which is exactly the kind of risk a team already knows how to carry.
28
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 28 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
28
Room on the shelf and a proven format. Low measured risk across every dimension.
Recommendations
-
01
Ship the physics chaos as a feature
The jank moments are your clip-shareable surface. Comparables that leaned into the chaos — rather than sanding it down — drove the bulk of their wishlist growth organically, for free.
Turns your biggest QA worry into your cheapest marketing channel.
-
02
Commit to cross-play at launch
Four-player co-op audiences expect it, and its absence caps the reachable player pool. Retrofitting cross-play after launch is materially harder and riskier than building it in from the start.
Protects the top end of the owner estimate, where the real upside sits.
-
03
Hold price at $24.99
The co-op band tolerates $24.99 and buyers expect it. Underpricing here leaves revenue on the table without buying any meaningful extra reach.
Captures the full value of a format the market already pays for.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 24 Co-op physics sims average 90%+ and this niche forgives rough edges.
- Owner Ceiling 30 Median comparable: 120k owners; the ceiling is far from crowded.
- Market Saturation 22 Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in 24 months.
- Price Competition 35 $24.99 is within the co-op band; buyers expect it.
- Engagement 20 Voice-driven chaos drives clip-sharing and long sessions.
Market analysis
Only 38 four-player salvage sims in 24 months and the ceiling is far from crowded — median comparable clears ~120k owners, with outliers past a million.
Differentiation
Physics-driven chaos and voice-led moments are exactly the clip-shareable surface this niche rewards. The format sells itself.
Confidence
9 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity, recent releases
Key risks
- Cross-play is expected at launch; its absence would cap reach.
- Server / netcode quality is the real execution risk.
- The long tail depends on content cadence after launch.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Crew | 9,800 | 95% | 1.2M | $14M |
| Derelict Divers | 3,200 | 91% | 340k | $4.1M |
| Void Haulers | 1,450 | 88% | 120k | $1.4M |
| Scrap Run Co | 640 | 82% | 38k | $360k |
| Orbital Wreckers | 210 | 77% | 12k | $110k |
AI-suggested comps
Salvage CrewDerelict DiversVoid HaulersScrap Run Co
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 9 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$1.8Mmedian · range $420k – $6.2M
$420kp10
$1.8Mmedian
$6.2Mp90
Break-even ≈ 2,000 units at $17.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Ship the physics chaos as a feature
- 02Commit to cross-play at launch
- 03Hold price at $24.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Karar Motoru
Üç sonuç. Sıfır belirsizlik.
Sonucu tek bir ölçüt belirler. Puan, öznel bir görüş değil, saf aritmetiktir. Düşük olması her zaman daha iyidir; çünkü puan, pazar doygunluğunu ölçer: hedeflediğin alanı kaç rakibin çoktan kapladığını.
PIVOT40 – 65
Bir ya da iki boyut, aksi halde uygulanabilir bir fikri öldürüyor. Rapor bunları adıyla söyler; böylece bağlanmadan önce tam olarak neyi değiştireceğini bilirsin.
Örnek Deste kurma otomatik dövüş · 53 · güven Orta
KILL66 – 100
Kategori doymuş, tavan düşük ya da ikisi birden. Bunu yayınlamak, geri alamayacağın on sekiz aya mal olur. Bunu bugün öğrenmek daha iyi.
Örnek Sıcacık çiftlik roguelike · 72 · güven Yüksek
Her karar bir güven düzeyi taşır.
Bir sayıyı haklı çıkaracak kadar benzer oyun yoksa, KillScore blöf yapmak yerine bunu açıkça söyler. Düşük güvenli bir 44, bir karar değil, bir araştırma görevidir.
Yüksek14+ benzer
Orta6–13 benzer
Düşük< 6 benzer
“Son 4 yılda bu fikirle yeterince yakından eşleşen yalnızca 3 oyun var. Puanı yön gösterici olarak değerlendir.”
Nasıl çalışır
Üç adım, yaklaşık doksan saniye.
-
01
Fikrini anlat
Bir paragraf yeter. Tür, kanca, fiyat, kapsam, platform. Vision AI modülümüz ekran görüntülerini ve tanıtım görsellerini de analiz eder.
Piksel sanatlı sıcacık çiftlik roguelike Analiz et -
02
127 bin Steam oyunuyla karşılaştır
Motor; tür, etiket kümesi, fiyat aralığı ve çıkış penceresine göre gerçek benzer oyunları bulur, sonra beş boyutu bunlara karşı ölçer.
127.412 oyun tarandı Kategoride 1.143 · 14 yakın benzer -
03
Kararı al
Puan, beş faktörlü döküm, inceleme ve sahiplik verili benzer oyunlar, gelir tahmini ve somut öneriler.
KILL 72
Risk modeli
Yer almak istediğin raftan alınmış beş ölçüm.
Her boyut, seninkiyle gerçekten rekabet eden oyunların canlı Steam verisinden türetilir. Ağırlıklandırılır, toplanır ve puan budur. Başka hiçbir şey ona dokunmaz.
- İnceleme Puanı
- Kategorinin hâlihazırda dayattığı kalite çıtası ve hayatta kalanların bu çıtanın ne kadar üstünde durduğu.
- Sahiplik Tavanı
- Karşılaştırılabilir çıkışların sahiplik dağılımından türetilen, satış adedi için gerçekçi üst sınır.
- Pazar Doygunluğu
- Bu alana son dönemde kaç oyunun çıktığı ve bunların ne kadar azının görünürlük eşiğini aştığı.
- Fiyat Rekabeti
- Fiyatının kategori moduna göre nerede durduğu ve bunu izleyen indirim baskısı.
- Bağlılık
- Kurmayı önerdiğin döngü için medyan oynanış süresi ve elde tutma sinyalleri.
Boyut detayıPazar Doygunluğu
88/100 risk · en yüksek katkı
- 1,143yayınlandı, 24 ay
- 611.000+ inceleme
- 5.3%görünürlüğü aştı
Neden güvenmeli
Yapay zekâ açıklar. Asla karar vermez.
Dil modelleri ikna edici ama tutarsızdır; bu da git/gitme kararı için berbat bir birleşimdir. Bu yüzden KillScore işi ikiye böler. Önemli olan yarısı aritmetiktir: yarın yeniden çalıştırırsın ve aynı yanıtı alırsın.
127,412Steam oyunu dizine eklendi
0puana LLM etkisi
100%yeniden üretilebilir karar
Karar hattıdeterministik
Puanlama motoru
72
pazar verisi · döngüde model yok
Dil modeli
gerekçeyi yazar
puana salt-okunur erişim
KILL
“Burada doygunluk ve sahiplik tavanı baskın. Roguelite döngüsü tek gerçek farklılaştırıcın — ve tanıtımının tam da gömdüğü şey o.”
Puan alanı, motordan sonra değiştirilemez.
Fiyatlandırma
Boşa geçen bir yıldan ucuz.
Indie
$14.99/mo
Sırada ne geliştireceğine karar veren tek kişilik ve iki kişilik ekipler.
- Ayda 10 analiz
- Tam risk dökümü (5 boyut)
- Build / Pivot / Kill kararı
- En iyi 10 benzer Steam oyunu
- LLM gerekçe özeti
- Vision AI (opsiyonel +5 $)
- Raporlar kalıcı olarak saklanır, PDF olarak dışa aktarılır
- Destek
Studio
$149.99/mo
Bir portföyü olan, yılda birden fazla oyun çıkaran ekipler.
- Ayda 100 analiz
- Tam risk dökümü (5 boyut)
- Build / Pivot / Kill kararı
- Gelir verili tam benzer oyunlar
- LLM gerekçe özeti
- Vision AI (opsiyonel +50 $)
- Yatırımcıya uygun PDF rapor
- Destek
Investor / Publisher
$499one-off
Başkasının portföyünde durum tespiti ya da belge isteyen bir yönetim kurulu.
- Tek bir derinlemesine rapor
- Dağıtıma hazır, yatırımcı düzeyinde PDF özet
- Tam benzer oyunlar + pazar verisi
- Yönetici risk özeti
- Yöntem eki — her sayı kaynağına kadar izlenebilir
- Vision AI (opsiyonel +250 $)
- Destek
Bir sonraki karar kanıta dayanmalı.
Görüntüye değil. İyimserliğe değil. Odadaki en yüksek sese değil.