BUILD0 – 39
市场仍有余地，同类作品也能存活。风险只是常规的执行风险——你早已懂得如何承担的那种。
示例 合作打捞模拟 · 24 · 置信度 高
AI 驱动的决策引擎
趁坏点子还没
拖垮你的工作室，
先扼杀它们。
游戏开发中最昂贵的错误，就是爱上了错误的点子。KillScore 将真实的 Steam 市场数据与 AI 结合，在你为任何一个概念投入哪怕一个冲刺周期之前，就给出最终判定。
127,412 款 Steam 作品已收录 · 分数由市场数据算出，绝非凭感觉
Cozy farming roguelike with pixel art, base building and a light romance system. Solo dev, 18 months, $19.99, Steam only.
Genre: Farming SimTags: Cozy · Roguelite · PixelPrice: $19.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
KILL
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. A saturated farming-sim shelf and a soft, under-sold hook put this concept at the crowded end of a category that only rewards the excellent. Owner ceiling and market saturation are the two dimensions doing the damage; fix those and the number moves, but as pitched this is eighteen months spent against long odds.
72
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 72 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
72
A saturated shelf and a soft hook — this competes on the crowded end of a category that punishes anything but excellent.
Recommendations
-
01
Drop the romance system
It adds an estimated four months of scope and none of your close comparables monetise it. The measured playtime lift sits inside the noise band — you are paying for a feature the market does not reward.
Reclaims a quarter of the timeline for the roguelite loop that actually differentiates you.
-
02
Re-price to $14.99
$19.99 sits a full tier above the category mode; 71% of owners on this shelf bought at or below $14.99. The higher price invites launch-week discounting anyway.
Removes the biggest conversion drag and pre-empts the discount spiral.
-
03
Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
Your pitch buries the one mechanic that separates you from 1,143 farming sims. Comparables that led with their twist cleared the visibility threshold two to three times more often.
Improves the odds of breaking the 1,000-review visibility ceiling.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 78 Cozy sims average 91% positive. Tolerance for mediocrity is near zero.
- Owner Ceiling 81 Median comparable: 8,400 owners. Top decile takes 71% of the category.
- Market Saturation 88 1,143 farming sims shipped in 24 months. 61 cleared 1,000 reviews.
- Price Competition 54 $19.99 sits above the $14.99 category mode; discount pressure at launch.
- Engagement 37 Roguelite loop lifts median playtime 2.4× versus pure farming sims.
Market analysis
The farming-sim shelf is deep and unforgiving: 1,143 titles in 24 months, and the top decile takes 71% of owners. Median comparable clears ~8,400 owners.
Differentiation
The roguelite loop is the only real wedge, but it is under-sold in the pitch and overshadowed by a romance system that adds months with no measured lift.
Confidence
14 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity over the Steam catalogue
Key risks
- Category saturation is near the ceiling — visibility is the binding constraint.
- Price sits above the $14.99 mode; launch discounting is likely.
- Romance scope inflates the timeline with no measured payoff.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roots of Pardalis | 3,412 | 94% | 210k | $1.9M |
| Harvest Cadence | 1,088 | 88% | 62k | $610k |
| Moonfall Acres | 276 | 71% | 11k | $94k |
| Sprout & Sword | 142 | 58% | 6.2k | $41k |
| Tillage Deep | 61 | 76% | 2.8k | $18k |
AI-suggested comps
Roots of PardalisHarvest CadenceMoonfall AcresSprout & Sword
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 14 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$38kmedian · range $9k – $210k
$9kp10
$38kmedian
$210kp90
Break-even ≈ 3,050 units at $12.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Drop the romance system
- 02Re-price to $14.99
- 03Lead marketing on the roguelite loop
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Roguelike deckbuilder crossed with an auto-battler. Synergy-driven unit drafting, PvE ladder, pixel art. Two devs, 14 months, $16.99, Steam.
Genre: DeckbuilderTags: Roguelite · AutobattlerPrice: $16.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence Medium
PIVOT
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. The core idea is sound and the deckbuilder-autobattler crossover has real room, but two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle: scope creep from the PvE ladder, and a synergy system that reads as derivative of the category leader. The report names exactly what to change — address both and this moves toward BUILD.
54
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 54 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
54
The idea holds; the scope does not. Two dimensions drag a workable concept into the middle.
Recommendations
-
01
Cut the PvE ladder
The format lives on daily seeded runs and draft-driven PvP. The PvE ladder adds months of content the audience is not asking for and dilutes the loop your comparables actually retain players with.
Refocuses scope on the replayable core and shortens the road to launch.
-
02
Differentiate the synergy archetypes
Three of your archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom, and reviewers of the category leader punish "me-too" synergy systems hard. This is the single change that moves the verdict.
Gives the game a defensible identity instead of a middle-of-the-pack score.
-
03
Hold price at $16.99
$16.99 lands exactly on the deckbuilder mode. The band supports it and there is no structural pressure to discount at launch.
Protects margin without costing you conversion.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 62 Deckbuilders average 87% positive — a high bar, but reachable.
- Owner Ceiling 55 Median comparable: 24k owners. A healthy mid-tier ceiling.
- Market Saturation 68 312 deckbuilders in 24 months; the autobattler twist is thinner ground.
- Price Competition 40 $16.99 sits right on the category mode. No pressure.
- Engagement 44 Synergy drafting lifts session length well above the genre median.
Market analysis
312 deckbuilders shipped in 24 months, but the autobattler crossover is thinner ground. Median comparable clears ~24k owners — a healthy mid-tier.
Differentiation
The synergy system is the wedge, yet three archetypes read as near-copies of Draft & Doom. Sharpen them and the verdict moves.
Confidence
19 titles matched · 12 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster + mechanic similarity
Key risks
- The PvE ladder adds scope the format does not need.
- Synergy archetypes lack a clear identity versus the leader.
- Confidence is medium — only 19 close comparables.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft & Doom | 2,140 | 89% | 95k | $1.1M |
| Synergy Spire | 770 | 85% | 28k | $300k |
| Auto Coliseum | 512 | 79% | 16k | $150k |
| Deck of Fates | 198 | 73% | 7k | $60k |
| Tactics Tavern | 88 | 64% | 3.1k | $22k |
AI-suggested comps
Draft & DoomSynergy SpireAuto ColiseumDeck of Fates
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 19 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$120kmedian · range $30k – $540k
$30kp10
$120kmedian
$540kp90
Break-even ≈ 2,100 units at $14.19 net
Recommendations
- 01Cut the PvE ladder
- 02Differentiate the synergy archetypes
- 03Hold price at $16.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
Four-player co-op deep-space salvage sim. Physics-based hauling, procedural derelicts, voice-driven chaos. Small team, 20 months, $24.99, Steam.
Genre: Co-op SimulationTags: Co-op · Physics · SurvivalPrice: $24.99 Re-analyse
Verdict
Confidence High
BUILD
The score is computed from live market data — the model wrote this explanation, it did not choose the verdict. Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in the last two years and the owner ceiling is a long way from crowded, so measured risk is low across every dimension. What is left is execution risk — netcode quality and cross-play — not market risk, which is exactly the kind of risk a team already knows how to carry.
28
RISK SCORE
Lower is better · 0–100
Where 28 sits on the scalethresholds at 40 and 65
28
Room on the shelf and a proven format. Low measured risk across every dimension.
Recommendations
-
01
Ship the physics chaos as a feature
The jank moments are your clip-shareable surface. Comparables that leaned into the chaos — rather than sanding it down — drove the bulk of their wishlist growth organically, for free.
Turns your biggest QA worry into your cheapest marketing channel.
-
02
Commit to cross-play at launch
Four-player co-op audiences expect it, and its absence caps the reachable player pool. Retrofitting cross-play after launch is materially harder and riskier than building it in from the start.
Protects the top end of the owner estimate, where the real upside sits.
-
03
Hold price at $24.99
The co-op band tolerates $24.99 and buyers expect it. Underpricing here leaves revenue on the table without buying any meaningful extra reach.
Captures the full value of a format the market already pays for.
Full report continues — breakdown, comparables & revenue model
Five risk dimensions
- Review Score 24 Co-op physics sims average 90%+ and this niche forgives rough edges.
- Owner Ceiling 30 Median comparable: 120k owners; the ceiling is far from crowded.
- Market Saturation 22 Only 38 four-player salvage sims shipped in 24 months.
- Price Competition 35 $24.99 is within the co-op band; buyers expect it.
- Engagement 20 Voice-driven chaos drives clip-sharing and long sessions.
Market analysis
Only 38 four-player salvage sims in 24 months and the ceiling is far from crowded — median comparable clears ~120k owners, with outliers past a million.
Differentiation
Physics-driven chaos and voice-led moments are exactly the clip-shareable surface this niche rewards. The format sells itself.
Confidence
9 titles matched · 9 with enough reviews to measure
Inputs to the score
Tag-cluster similarity, recent releases
Key risks
- Cross-play is expected at launch; its absence would cap reach.
- Server / netcode quality is the real execution risk.
- The long tail depends on content cadence after launch.
Full breakdown continues — sub-factor weights & per-dimension evidence
Closest comparables
| Title | Reviews | Positive | Owners | Rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Crew | 9,800 | 95% | 1.2M | $14M |
| Derelict Divers | 3,200 | 91% | 340k | $4.1M |
| Void Haulers | 1,450 | 88% | 120k | $1.4M |
| Scrap Run Co | 640 | 82% | 38k | $360k |
| Orbital Wreckers | 210 | 77% | 12k | $110k |
AI-suggested comps
Salvage CrewDerelict DiversVoid HaulersScrap Run Co
iOwner counts are estimates — modelled from review counts, read as a band, not an exact number.
Full comparable set continues — 9 matched, with tag overlap & release windows
Revenue estimate
$1.8Mmedian · range $420k – $6.2M
$420kp10
$1.8Mmedian
$6.2Mp90
Break-even ≈ 2,000 units at $17.49 net
Recommendations
- 01Ship the physics chaos as a feature
- 02Commit to cross-play at launch
- 03Hold price at $24.99
!Owner estimates modelled from review counts. Steam takes 30%; a 7.4% category refund rate is assumed.
Full model continues — monthly curve, wishlist inputs & sensitivity ranges
决策引擎
三种结果，毫不含糊。
结果由一个指标决定。这个分数是纯粹的算术，而非主观意见。分数越低越好，因为它衡量的是市场饱和度：已有多少竞争者占据了你的目标空间。
PIVOT40 – 65
一两个维度正在扼杀一个原本可行的概念。报告会点名指出，让你在投入之前清楚该改什么。
示例 构筑卡组自走棋 · 53 · 置信度 中
KILL66 – 100
品类已经饱和、天花板很低，或者两者兼具。做出来会耗掉你十八个月，且再也拿不回来。今天就弄清楚更划算。
示例 温馨农场肉鸽 · 72 · 置信度 高
每一次判定都带有置信度。
当可比作品太少、不足以支撑一个数字时，KillScore 会如实说明，而不是虚张声势。一个低置信度的 44 是一项调研任务，而非一个决定。
高14+ 对比
中6–13 对比
低< 6 对比
“过去 4 年里只有 3 款作品与该概念足够接近。请把分数当作方向性参考。”
工作原理
三步，约九十秒。
-
01
描述概念
一段话就够了。类型、卖点、价格、体量、平台。我们的 Vision AI 模块还会分析截图和主视觉。
像素风的温馨农场肉鸽 分析 -
02
与 12.7 万款 Steam 作品比对
引擎按类型、标签集群、价格区间和发行窗口找出真正的可比作品，再据此衡量五个维度。
已扫描 127,412 款作品 品类内 1,143 款 · 14 款贴近对比 -
03
获得判定
分数、五因子拆解、带评测与拥有者数据的可比作品、收入预估，以及具体建议。
KILL 72
风险模型
五项测量，取自你想跻身的那块货架。
每个维度都来自与你真正竞争的作品的实时 Steam 数据。它们被加权、求和，这就是分数。没有别的东西能触碰它。
- 评测分数
- 你的品类已经设下多高的质量门槛，以及幸存者高出这道门槛多少。
- 拥有者上限
- 销量的现实上限，取自可比作品的拥有者分布。
- 市场饱和度
- 近来有多少作品挤进这一领域，又有多么少的作品闯出了曝光。
- 价格竞争
- 你的定价相对品类主流价位处于何处，以及随之而来的降价压力。
- 参与度
- 你打算打造的玩法循环的中位游玩时长与留存信号。
维度详情市场饱和度
88/100 风险 · 最大贡献项
- 1,143已发行，24 个月
- 61超过 1,000 条评测
- 5.3%突破曝光
为何可信
AI 负责解释，从不负责决定。
语言模型既有说服力又不稳定——对于「做还是不做」的判断而言，这是糟糕的组合。所以 KillScore 把工作一分为二。真正重要的那一半是算术：明天再跑一遍，你会得到同样的答案。
127,412款 Steam 作品已收录
0LLM 对分数的影响
100%可复现的判定
决策流水线确定性
评分引擎
72
市场数据 · 环节中没有模型
语言模型
撰写理由
对分数只读访问
KILL
“这里由饱和度和拥有者上限主导。肉鸽循环是你唯一真正的差异点——而这恰恰是你的宣传所埋没的那一点。”
分数字段在引擎之后不可更改。
价格
比白白浪费一年更便宜。
Indie
$14.99/mo
正在决定下一步做什么的独立开发者与两人小队。
- 每月 10 次分析
- 完整风险拆解（5 个维度）
- Build / Pivot / Kill 判定
- 十大可比 Steam 游戏
- LLM 推理摘要
- Vision AI（可选 +$5）
- 报告永久保存，可导出为 PDF
- 支持
Studio
$149.99/mo
拥有产品阵容、一年发行不止一款的团队。
- 每月 100 次分析
- 完整风险拆解（5 个维度）
- Build / Pivot / Kill 判定
- 含收入数据的完整可比作品
- LLM 推理摘要
- Vision AI（可选 +$50）
- 面向投资者的 PDF 报告
- 支持
Investor / Publisher
$499one-off
对他人产品阵容做尽调，或需要书面材料的董事会。
- 单份深度报告
- 投资者级 PDF 简报，随时可分发
- 完整可比作品 + 市场数据
- 高管风险摘要
- 方法论附录——每个数字都可追溯到来源
- Vision AI（可选 +$250）
- 支持